AquarterlysummaryofNBERresearchALSOINTHISISSUEProbabilityofanEconomicDisasterProbabilityofdisasterimpliedbythehistoricalprice-to-earningsratiooftheS&P50014%121086420Average1890191019301950197019902010Source:J.A.Wachter,NBERWorkingPaperNo14386RareEventsandFinancialftarkets7TheImpactofLandInstitutionsandftisallocationonAgriculturalProductivity11Firm-LevelRisk,LifetimeEarningsUncertainty,andHouseholdSavings15TheBenefitsofRehabilitativeIncarceration18NBERNews22Conferences25ProgramandWorkingGroupfteetings29NBERBooks34NBERReporterNATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCHProgramReportPublicEconomicsRajChettyandAmyFinkelstein*No,March2020Publiceconomicsisthestudyofgovernmentinterventioninthemar-keteconomy,designedtomoveoutcomesawayfromthemarketequilib-rium.Thetwoprimarymotivationsforsuchinterventionsareimprovingmarketefficiencyandredistributingresourcesacrosspopulations.Thefieldisprincipallyconcernedwithanalyzingtheeffectsofvarioustools—suchastaxpoliciesandsocialinsuranceprograms—thataredesignedtoachievetheseaims.TheNBERPublicEconomicsProgramhasmadesignificantprogressinunderstandingtheseissuesduringtheeightyearssincethelastprogramreport.BetweenJanuary1,2012andthepresent—thetimeperiodcoveredbythecurrentreport—therewerealmost2,000NBERworkingpapersinpubliceconomics.ftuchofthisworkhasbeenfueledbytheavailabilityofnewdatasourcesthatpermitresearcherstostudylongstandingquestionswithunprecedentedprecisionandgranularity.Ratherthanattemptingtosummarizethisentirecorpusofwork,thisreportfocusesontwoareasofresearch:Determinantsofthetake-upofgovernmentprogramsandtheimpactsoftheseprogramsonbehaviorandeconomicoutcomes.Theseexamplesarenotmeanttobeexhaustive;theyfocusonalimited,andadmittedlysomewhatarbitrary,subsetoftheexcit-ingresearchbeingundertakenbyprogramaffiliates.However,theyillus-tratesomeofthemainthemesandrichnessinanalysisthathaveemergedfromrecentwork.Alloftherecentworkingpapersbyprogramaffiliatesmaybefoundhere:conference.nber.org/papersbyprog/PE.html.*RajChettyistheWilliamA.AckmanProfessorofPublicEconomicsatHarvardUniversityandthedirectorofOpportunityInsights,aninstitutewhichusesbigdatatoidentifyanddevelopscalablewaystoovercomebarrierstoeco-nomicopportunity.AmyFinkelsteinistheJohn&JennieProfessorS.MacDonaldoftheMassachusettsEconomicsatInstituteofTechnologyandco-founderandco-scientificdirectorofJ-PALNorthAmerica,aresearchcenterthatencouragesandfacilitatesrandomizedevaluationsofimportantdomesticpolicyissues.ReporterOnlineat:www.nber.org/reporterNBERReporterTake-upandTargetingofGovernmentProgramsTheNationalBureauofEconomicResearchisaprivate,nonprofitresearchorga-nizationfoundedin1920anddevotedtoobjectivequantitativeanalysisoftheAmericaneconomy.Itsofficersandboardofdirectorsare:PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer—JamesM.PoterbaController—KellyHorakCorporateSecretary—AlterraMiloneBOARDOFDIRECTORSChair—KarenN.HornViceChair—JohnLipskyTreasurer—RobertMednickDIRECTORSATLARGEPeterAldrichElizabethE.BaileySusanft.CollinsKathleenB.CooperCharlesH.DallaraGeorgeC.EadsJessicaP.EinhornftohamedEl-ErianDianaFarrellJacobA.FrenkelRobertS.HamadaPeterBlairHenryKarenN.HornLisaJordanJohnLipskyLaurenceH.fteyerKarenftillsftichaelH.ftoskowAliciaH.ftunnellRobertT.ParryDouglasPetersonJamesft.PoterbaJohnS.ReedftarkWeinbergerftartinB.ZimmermanDIRECTORSBYUNIVERSITYAPPOINTftENTTimothyBresnahan,StanfordPierre-AndréChiappori,ColumbiaftaureenCropper,MarylandAlanV.Deardorff,MichiganGrahamElliott,California,SanDiegoEdwardFoster,MinnesotaJohnP.Gould,ChicagoBruceHansen,Wisconsin-MadisonBenjaminHermalin,California,BerkeleySamuelKortum,YaleGeorgeftailath,PennsylvaniaJoelftokyr,NorthwesternCeciliaElenaRouse,PrincetonRichardL.Schmalensee,MITIngoWalter,NewYorkDavidB.Yoffie,HarvardDIRECTORSBYAPPOINTftENTOFOTHERORGANIZATIONSTimothyBeatty,AgriculturalandAppliedEconomicsAssociationftartinGruber,AmericanFinanceAssociationPhilipHoffman,EconomicHistoryAssociationArthurKennickell,AmericanStatisticalAssociationJackKleinhenz,NationalAssociationforBusinessEconomicsRobertftednick,AmericanInstituteofCertifiedPublicAccountantsPeterL.Rousseau,AmericanEconomicAssociationGregorW.Smith,CanadianEconomicsAssociationWilliamSpriggs,AmericanFederationofLaborandCongressofIndustrialOrganizationsBartvanArk,TheConferenceBoardTheNBERdependsonfundingfromindividuals,corporations,andprivatefoundationstomaintainitsindependenceanditsflexibilityinchoosingitsresearchactivities.InquiriesconcerningcontributionsmaybeaddressedtoJamesft.Poterba,President&CEO,NBER,1050ftassachusettsAvenue,Cambridge,ftA02138-5398.AllcontributionstotheNBERaretax-deductible.Anaturalassumptionwhendesigninggovern-mentprograms—onemadeinmuchofthetheoret-icalliteratureinpublicfinancefordecades—isthateveryonewhoiseligiblefortheprograminquestionparticipates.Butenrollmentinsocialsafetynetpro-gramsistypicallynotautomatic:individualsmustapplyfortheprogramsanddemonstrateeligibility.Often,eligibilityrulesarecomplicated,applicationformslong,anddocumentationrequirementssub-stantial.Perhapsasaresult,manypeoplewhoareeligibleforsocialsafetynetprogramsdonotpar-ticipate.Commonhypothesesforthis“incompletetake-uppuzzle”includelackofinformationabouteligibility,transactioncostsassociatedwithenroll-ment,andstigmaassociatedwithapplyingfororenrollingintheprograms.examinedresearchhastwoempiricalquestionsthatrelatetotake-up:identifyingbarrierstotake-upandestimatinghowthosebarriersaffectthecharacteristicsofapplicantsandenrollment,knownasthe“targeting”propertyofthebarrier.verydifferentEconomistshavepositedeligiblehypothesesindividualsaredeterredenrolling.Drawingonneoclassicaltheory,somehavearguedthatthosedeterredmightbetheleastneedyamongtheeligible,whilerecentworkinbehavioraleconomicshassuggestedthatdeter-rentordealsmayhaveexactlytheoppositetargetingforwhatkindsofRecentfromisissuedforinformationalTheReporterpurposesandhasnotbeenreviewedbytheBoardofDirectorsoftheNBER.Itisnotedandcanbefreelyrepro-ducedwithappropriatetheattributionofsource.PleaseprovideNBER’sPublicInformationDepartmentwithcopiesofanythingreproduced.Requestsforsubscriptions,changesofaddress,andcancellationsshouldbesenttoReporter,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.,1050ftassachusettsAvenue,Cambridge,ftA02138-5398(pleaseincludethecurrentmailinglabel),orbyemailtosubs@nber.org.PrintcopiesoftheReporterareonlymailedtosubscribersintheU.S.andCanada;thoseinothernationsmayrequestelectronicsubscriptionsatwww.nber.org/drsubscribe/NBERReporter•No,ftarch2020effect,discouragingpreciselythoseapplicantsthesocialplannerwouldmostliketoenroll.Thisambiguityaboutwhethertargetingtendstoexcludethemostortheleastneedypotentialben-eficiarieshasmadeempiricalworkonthetopicallthemoreimportant.ftuchofthisempiricalworkhasbeenconductedintheformofrandomizedcontrolledtrialsofparticularinterventions,theirimpactontake-up,andthecharacteristicsofthosewhotakeup,buttherehavealsobeenimportantquasi-experimentalpapers.WesummarizefindingsfromselectedpapersinwhatfollowsReductionsininformationalbarriershavebeenfoundtobequantitativelyimportantingenerat-ingtake-upinsomecontextsbutnotinothers.Inarecentseriesofrandomizedinterventionsaimedatincreasingtake-upoftheEarnedIncomeTaxCredit(EITC)amonglikelyeligibleindividuals,Dayanandftanoliandco-authorshavefoundthattake-upishighlysensitivetoboththefrequencyandnatureofreminderletterssentbytheInternalRevenueService,althoughtheeffectsofthereminderdonotpersistintothefollowingyearwhentheindi-choosehealthinsuranceplanswhich,whilemoreexpensivethanotheroptions,donotanyofferadditionalcoverageInformationbilityeligi-aboutdisproportionatelyencouragesenrollmenteligible,highersocioeconomicapplicantsinSNAPprogramStudiesamongrelativelystatusthehavefoundthatmakingitmoreburdensometoaccessbenefits—thatimposingis,transactioncosts—increasestarget-ingonsomebutnotalldimensions.Alatasetthatintroducingfindal.transactioncostsbyrequiringindividualsInadditiontoinvestigatinghowbarri-erstoenrollmentaffecttake-uprates,recentresearchhasfocusedonhowthesebarri-ersmayaffectthecharacteristicsofappli-cantsandenrollees.Frominformationinter-ventions,thereisevidencethatcomplexitydisproportionatelydetersEITCenrollmentoflower-incomepotentialrecipients,andthat,dueatleastinparttoalacklower-incomeofemployeesliteracy,someinsur-anceandtionvidualswouldhavesignupagaintoLikewise,Susancol-Dynarskilaboratorsfindthataninformationthatinterven-high-informedachievingstudentsaboutatuition-freescholarshipcollegeenrollmentincreasedatastateflagshipuniversityThereisalsoquasi-experimen-thatevidencetalinfor-mationisanimportantbarriertoofpost-take-upenroll-secondaryamongmentmentunemploy-recipi-insuranceHowever,entsHuntAllcottandftichaelGreenstonefindinarandomizedevaluationinterventionsthatlackofawarenessisnotacontributortolowtake-upofhomeenergyefficiencyauditsofinformationalReductionsintransactionalbarri-ershavebeenfoundtobeimportantforincreasingenrollmentinseveralAmydifferentprograms.FinkelsteinandftatthewNotowidigdofindthatforelderlyindividu-alseligibleSupplementalNutritionfortheAssistance(SNAP),Programinformationalonecanhaveaneffectontake-up,butthatpairingitwithassistancedoublestheimpactftanasiDeshpandeandYueLifindthattheclos-ingoflocalfieldofficesSocialwhereDisabilitySecurityInsuranceandSupplementalSecurityIncomeFigure1ferprogramreducesenrollmentapplicationscansubmittedbestantiallysub-bothreducesapplicationsandenroll-mentViviAlatasandco-authorsevi-presentdencefromarandom-izedevaluationacrossIndonesianvillagesthatincreasingthetransac-tioncostofapplyingforaconditionalcashtrans-